The Enrollment Cliff

Perhaps the most famous line in all of Ernest Hemingway’s novels is the answer that the belligerent Mike Campbell gives in The Sun Also Rises when asked how he went bankrupt. “Gradually, then suddenly,” the Scotsman replies.

That’s the fear in the back of the minds of college trustees of institutions that may already be struggling to keep up enrollments and stem losses or worried that their operating revenues could swiftly turn from black to red.

Exacerbating those concerns, the nation’s high school graduating Class of 2025 was the largest there will be for the foreseeable future. Those young men and women were among the 4.3 million babies born in the United States in 2007, even more than at the 1957 peak of the post–World War II baby boom. In 2010, that number had fallen to 3. 9 million, and it has generally continued to decline. In 2024, which had the lowest fertility rate on record, just 3.6 million babies were born, a staggering drop of almost 17 percent from the peak.

Unfortunately, that means that the number of high school graduates—and thus potential college enrollees—will most likely not increase much or even keep pace for a good while. In fact, experts predict that by the beginning of the next decade, enrollment will fall 5 percent nationally, including 16 percent fewer students in California and 14 percent fewer in New York, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.¹

The long-feared demographic cliff is here.

That said, the situation is mixed, and the dreaded cliff will impact different institutions to different degrees. The number of births is expected to vary somewhat from year to year and even more from region to region. While the population is dropping in the Northeast and the Midwest, it is growing in the South—in Texas and Florida in particular. Other projected growth states are Iowa, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and North and South Dakota.

According to the annual Knocking at the Door report by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), which has tracked enrollments since 1979, some 38 states will see declines in the number of high school graduates by 2041.² “Declines in the West, Midwest, and Northeast regions are starker than originally projected, yet the South is anticipated to grow,” WICHE forecast.

Overall, however, while there may be fluctuations and variations, Nathan D. Grawe, a Carleton College economist and author of Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2018), concluded, “you could make a good argument that we are beginning a slide that will last for at least the next 18 years.”

Apart from the number of babies being born, other troubling social forces and trends will continue to impact enrollment, including the steep fall in public confidence in higher education and the change in the belief that a college diploma is the surest path to a prosperous, successful life. Students and their families are also increasingly reluctant to go deeply into debt to pay for college.

Moreover, of the students who graduate from high school, significantly fewer are choosing to attend college right away. Less than 63 percent enrolled directly in two-year and four-year colleges in 2024 compared to 70 percent in 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.³ Men in particular are rejecting college and immediately entering the workforce instead.

And while colleges and universities have stepped up efforts to enroll more older students to make up for the drop in traditional students, most undergraduates still are—and will probably continue to be—under 25, including 85 percent of full-time undergraduates at four-year institutions and 79 percent at two-year colleges, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.⁴

College may not be able to depend on international students to help fill empty classroom seats either. The U.S. State Department and the Institute of International Education will release in November its census of international enrollments for 2024–2025, but that won’t show the full effect of the Trump administration’s tighter immigration rules and slowdown in processing visa applications. A record 1,126,690 international students, or 5.9 percent of the 19 million students at U.S. colleges and universities, studied here in 2023–2024.⁵ (That number includes a quarter-million who earned their degrees and were allowed to gain work experience in their field afterwards for 12 months or longer.) But given such new federal regulations, whether international students will continue to enroll at the same pace remains a looming question.

Finally, too many people who start college never make it across the finish line. They continue to drop out—and sometimes quite soon after enrollment. Census Bureau data show that, as of 2024, only 40 percent of women and 37 percent of men age 25 and older hold a bachelor’s degree or higher.⁶

Taking all these trends together, the emerging situation will surely be a challenging one for many if not most colleges and universities moving forward. What will be the impact, both short-term and long-term? How can colleges successfully grapple with demographic and other enrollment issues, and how should their governing boards guide them? What strategies are institutions already pursuing or considering?

To provide some context for boards, what follows are further data, case studies, and a few recommendations gleaned from interviews conducted with leaders from both private and public institutions of various sizes in different areas of the country.

Falone Serna, dean of undergraduate admission and outreach, took on the challenge of growing back enrollment in 2022 after a decade directing admissions at Reed College, Pepperdine University, and Whittier College. Before that, he was associate director of admissions at Harvey Mudd College and is a graduate himself of a small, private college: the University of La Verne.

“Post pandemic, we’ve had our enrollment challenges that it’s been tough to put our finger on,” he explained. While the university made the switch to online instruction during COVID-19, “a big part of our value proposition is the residential, in-person experience. You’re not coming to Cal Lutheran to Zoom and stay in your room behind the screen.”

Serna continued: “We’re not a highly ranked, high-profile institution. We are a regional place. It’s a wonderful school, but we rely heavily on campus visits, and we had almost two years of no one being able to visit our campus. I’m sure a lot of institutions like us would say the same thing.” He added that the U.S. Department of Education’s FAFSA foul-ups did not help: “We’re still trying to pick up the pieces from that.”

Cal Lutheran’s tuition and fees top $54,000 before financial aid. The total cost of attendance, including room and board, is $77,710. The university’s tuition discount rate ranges between 60 and 65 percent, and 100 percent of its students receive financial aid, including grants and loans, which averages $40,625.

“We’d certainly like to keep the discount rate in check and under control,” said Serna. But with rival institutions also offering deep discounts, “the more important thing for us is net tuition revenue. We’re formulating a plan that is going to hopefully bring in the target headcount we’d like and the revenue we need to continue to function as a university.”

A strong athletics program is one of the university’s draws—more than 600 student athletes compete on 22 intercollegiate teams—and it offers degrees in sports management. The Los Angeles Rams have used Cal Lutheran’s stadium as their practice facility, and the campus is home to the largest training facility in professional women’s soccer.

Also, many people are optimistic about the university’s future under its new president, John A. Nunes, a scholar, author, former chief executive officer of the Lutheran World Relief agency, and former president of Concordia College New York. “We have a lot of great things going for us and a lot of things in our favor,” Serna said. “And once people find that out, it’s an easier sell.”

Endicott enrolled 3,360 undergraduates in fall 2024. Two decades earlier, it had 1,843 undergraduates. Total enrollment grew from 3,300 in 2004 to 4,560 last year. Two thirds of undergraduates are women, attracted by nursing, business, education, and other programs. It enrolled its largest ever freshman class in 2023, some 900 students, drawn to its robust program of internships, which wins over many parents and students.

Meghan Monaco, vice president of enrollment management, said, “I don’t think we’re even close to the potential that (we) have, but from an undergraduate standpoint, we’re kind of at our cap, not having a lot of residency spaces available.”

The key, she believes, is the college’s requirement that students complete three internships in order to graduate. “It’s called our Experiential Edge program, and it begins in their first year,” said Monaco, who was first hired in 2008 to work in both admissions and as the lacrosse coach, a dual role she relinquished in 2014.

“We’re combining the curriculum of a hands-on learning experience with a traditional classroom experience, and I think students and families really recognize (the value of) that,” she said. “As many as 99 percent of our students are employed or in graduate school within one year of graduation. I think that’s why we’ve been able to weather the demographic changes that we’ve experienced.”

“I’m often asked by prospective parents, ‘What do you do for career search and preparation in their senior year?’ and I say, ‘Well, it’s not their senior year. It starts their freshman year,’” she said.

Endicott’s tuition is $41,700 and total costs are above $61,000. While 95 percent of students get some aid, “We haven’t had to discount substantially to enroll a class … (while) most of our overlap institutions are discounting really significantly.”

Monaco believes its location is a big plus for Endicott, which while not in the heart of Boston is “not in the middle of nowhere either.”

Asked if Endicott has anything to fear from the demographic cliff, she said, “I wouldn’t be doing my job if I wasn’t aware of all of those challenges. We have a model that is working really well, but that could absolutely change at any moment, and we have to be prepared for that.” Monaco said Endicott is trying to recruit more students from outside New England and “looking at other places where high school graduates are growing.” Half of its students are from Massachusetts and 35 percent from the other five New England states. Her admissions team numbers 10, plus seven or eight in the financial aid office. “I think we’re probably a little bit understaffed,” said Monaco.

Yet if the demographic cliff and other pressures on enrollment do undermine Endicott’s position, she believes it will only happen gradually. “Maybe that’s the optimist in me,” she acknowledged, “but that helps me sleep at night.”

“These records are a testament to the innovative approach of our faculty and staff, and the hard work of our students,” said Chancellor Donde Plowman. “Every year, more students want to come to UT because they are looking for an experience that will change their lives and an education that will prepare them for the future. They know when they become volunteers that they will have the community, resources, and support they need to thrive both in and out of the classroom.”

Another example of a flagship that seems to be flourishing is the University of Connecticut (UConn) in Storrs, Connecticut. The institution received 63,200 applications for this fall, accepted 54 percent, and enrolled a record 6,550 first-year students, for a total of more than 25,000 undergraduates overall. More than a third of the newcomers are the first generation in their families to attend college.¹³

Despite such strong numbers, however, Nathan Fuerst, vice president for student life and enrollment at UConn, told the university’s board of trustees in June that, to keep growing, the university needs to enroll more out-of-state and international students due to the drop in the number of high school graduates in Connecticut. UConn faces a $134-million budget deficit and institutional leaders “see enrollment expansion as a potential way to close the gap. About 57 percent of UConn’s revenue comes from tuition,” the CT Mirror, a nonprofit Connecticut news organization, reported.¹⁴

Thirty percent of UConn students are from out of state. They pay $44,000 in tuition and fees, more than double the $17,000 that Nutmeg State residents pay. International undergraduates also usually pay the higher out-of-state rates. Time will tell if the university will be able to attract more such students and continue to thrive.

“The myth that a college degree is losing its value does not square with reality—the demand for ASU is only increasing,” said President Michael Crow.

Another institution with healthy enrollment numbers is North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University (NCA&T). Already the largest public historically Black college and university, it reported record enrollment this academic year of 15,725, a 6.7 percent increase and nearly 1,000 more than fall 2024. First-year enrollment rose 10 percent and the university admitted 17 percent more transfers and almost 1,000 international students, half from African nations.

It marked the 12^th consecutive year of growth for NCA&T, and “reaffirms our commitment to the people of North Carolina, our national appeal and impact as an exponential, doctoral research HBCU, and the promise that North Carolina A&T holds for students around the world,” said Chancellor James R. Martin II.

The University of Idaho (UI) also has a good story to tell: it registered its largest enrollment ever last spring, with 11,886 newly admitted students, up 4.2 percent from 2024 and 22 percent over four years ago. It also saw a single-year jump of 23 percent in international enrollments. The flagship campus is in Moscow, but the university also has campuses in Boise, Coeur d’Alene, and Idaho Falls, and it is Idaho’s only R1 research university.

The university has benefits from the fact that Idaho, the 38^th most populous state with two million residents, has a distinct advantage when it comes to concerns about the demographic cliff. Its high school enrollment is projected to grow 11 percent between 2022 and 2031, far more than any other state, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.¹⁵

Idaho is also among the 15 states in a Western Undergraduate Exchange (WUE) program, organized by WICHE, which provides discounted tuition rates for outside students. UI’s tuition for 2025–2026 is $9,400 for Idaho residents and $28,636 for non-Idaho residents, but just $12,914 for students in the WUE compact.

Idaho’s growth is driven not by a high birth rate but by people moving into the state, according to Bas van Doorn, a senior research analyst for the Idaho State Board of Education.¹⁶ “This should be good news for Idaho’s public postsecondary institutions, but there are risks to keep in mind,” van Doorn said. They include the possibility that more Idaho students will go out of state for college and that high school enrollment declines elsewhere will mean fewer out-of-state students’ attending Idaho’s colleges and universities.