Federal Outlook: The Four P’s of Prognostication

Council Insights: Council of Board Professionals

By Kai S. Swanson January 10, 2025 Uncategorized

With his more than three decades of experience working on federal education policy in our nation’s capital, it is not the least bit astonishing that Vic Klatt was twice named to Washingtonian magazine’s list of the 500 most influential people shaping policy. What might be surprising, however, is that some lucky folks from college, university, and foundation board offices had Klatt’s full attention for the better part of 90 minutes at the December meeting of the AGB Council of Board Professionals.

Now principal emeritus of the Penn Hill Group, Klatt began by sharing his take on the four lenses he uses to read the D.C. tea leaves: people, politics, processes, and policy.

With new people at the helm in the Senate, as well as both chambers’ lead committees on education, combined with a razor-thin margin in the House and the traditionally precarious position of the party in power at the mid-terms following a presidential election, politics will be a factor in every attempt at a decision in Congress.

For process, having one party in charge of the White House, Senate, and House can streamline their efforts, but if the past decade has taught us anything, it is that Shakespeare’s “what’s past is prologue” is no longer the smart-money bet it once was. All of which leads to policy, where Klatt anticipates we will likely see fewer regulations (listen for corks popping in the financial aid office) and plenty of congressional hearings and executive actions targeting anything in higher education which the party in power sees as fundraising fuel for the next election cycle. (Think diversity, equity, and inclusion, free expression, students lacking documentation, and so on).

The key takeaway for board professionals is to be prepared. Curveballs are coming, and responding with articulate analysis rather than ratcheted-up rhetoric will be essential. If new policies are exacting a cost on our institutions—either through the bottom line or mission effectiveness—then our board members need to be informed with reasoned examination. We can help equip our trustees to use their networks in advocating on behalf of the essential role higher education plays in driving economic growth and sustaining the structures that undergird it.

In wrapping up the session, AGB president and CEO Fram Virjee noted that our sector was facing significant headwinds long before the election. Tightening enrollment, a financial aid system in crisis, and an unsustainable funding model were all pre-existing conditions on November 5, but the election might have brought these challenges into sharper focus, he said. Having a better understanding of where the pressure points are might help us concentrate our boards’ attention on mission, independence, and their fiduciary stewardship of both.

AGB has been formulating strategies for optimizing the organization’s resources to best serve its members. Considering the challenges—old and new—that our sector faces, this is encouraging news as we look forward to our time together at the AGB Board Professionals Conference, March 29-31, in Chicago.

Kai S. Swanson is special assistant to the president at Augustana College in Rock Island, Illinois, and a member of the Council of Board Professionals.

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