Executive Summary
Updated September 3, 2024
The most pressing public policy issues facing college and university boards of trustees and foundation boards in 2023 and 2024, in the estimation of the Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges and a higher education advisory panel, are the following:
- Affordability and Value
- Accountability and Regulation
- Judicial Rulings
- Political Influence
- Federal and State Funding
- College Athletics
These issues are gaining strength in a tumultuous context that is very likely to continue over the next several years and beyond. Governing boards and institutional leaders will be called upon to make decisions at a time of acute economic uncertainties, divisive partisan politics, declining enrollment and diminished public confidence in higher education. As institutions return to normalcy, the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to ripple through the system, including a rebound from the widespread enrollment drops that began in 2019. But whether that hope will be fulfilled remains a question, as recent polls show growing public skepticism over whether expensive college degrees are worth the cost when it comes to outcomes in the job market. Inflation and fears of recession are adding significant economic uncertainty to the environment in which colleges and universities will have to recruit and educate students in the future.
Meanwhile, the country’s political divide, manifested in Washington, D.C., and state capitals, has sparked controversies especially in the public sector over diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts and, in some states, what can be taught in classrooms about race and racism. The Supreme Court ruled against the use of race-based admissions policy in June 2023. A day later, it ruled that President Biden’s plan to wipe out $400 million in student debt could not move forward.
These challenges make it more urgent than ever for those who govern and lead colleges and universities to make their voices heard about the importance of higher education not only to the economy but to the country’s civil discourse and cohesion, as well as its vital role as an engine of opportunity and advancement.
We provide a brief introduction of the major issues below, followed by a description of the context in which colleges and their boards will be grappling with them. We then take a deeper dive into each issue and how it is playing out in higher education today.
Affordability and Value
College affordability and crushing student debt loads are twin issues that affect millions of American families—both those deciding where to send their children and those still struggling to pay off loans from years and even decades ago. Private, nonprofit, four-year institutions, in particular, face growing resistance to tuitions that average nearly $40,000, not counting tuition discounts. Students, families, and the public at large are questioning the fundamental value of a college degree, and government auditors have criticized as confusing the information colleges give prospective students about financial aid and net costs. Meanwhile, proposals by the Biden administration to increase college affordability—such as larger Pell Grants and tuition-free community college—have hit roadblocks in the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives.
Accountability and Regulation
Despite the political divide in Congress, some measures related to affordability and accountability may attract bipartisan support, including an excise tax on and further scrutiny of the returns of billion-dollar endowments. Other areas where the government may demand greater accountability or impose new regulations are:
- Title IX. The Biden administration issued final regulations for the 1972 law against sex discrimination in education to further protect the rights and gender identity of LGBTQI+ students and broaden the scope of sexual discrimination generally under Title IX. Immediately upon publication of the final rule in the Federal Register, several states and other groups filed lawsuits to block the rule’s implementation and injunctions are in place in over half the states. The U.S. Department of Education has also submitted a separate proposed rule on Title IX’s application to sports, including criteria for determining students’ eligibility to play on male or female teams. This rule is now listed in the administration’s “Long Term Actions” list, so it is not expected in the immediate future.
- Gainful employment. The Biden administration reestablished the Obama administration’s gainful employment rule for programs at career colleges and certificate programs at all other higher education institutions. It is also seeking to make student aid eligibility dependent on whether those who complete such programs earn as much as high school graduates. The Department of Education extended the compliance deadline from July 31 to October 1 for institutions to report program-level data.
- Accreditation. The U.S. Department of Education seeks to amend its standards for accreditation agencies. In addition, after Florida passed a law requiring its public institutions, in most cases, to switch accreditors every accreditation cycle, the department stepped in to offer guidance, warning it would not allow switches “to lessen oversight or rigor, or evade inquiries or sanctions.” The department used the negotiated rulemaking process earlier this year to determine whether additional requirements were necessary for institutions to receive approval to change accreditors and has publicly announced that a proposed rule will not be forthcoming until 2025. Further, some Republican lawmakers are considering changes to accreditation, including requiring accreditors to focus more on student outcomes.
- Intellectual property and China. Colleges and universities will be tasked with enforcing new CHIPS and Science Act rules to lessen America’s reliance on foreign semiconductor suppliers and prevent China’s theft of high-tech intellectual property. Those institutions applying for National Science Foundation grants must disclose agreements and gifts from China and “other countries of concern.”
- Student outcomes. Both the federal government and state governments are requiring higher education institutions to provide more information about the tuition they charge as well as their students’ job prospects, post-college incomes, and other measures of student success. The U.S. Department of Education has finalized its “fair value transparency” rules that would report whether programs not covered by the gainful employment rule, including four-year degree programs, fail the gainful employment regulations metrics and require certificate and graduate program students to acknowledge this status. The Department of Education extended the compliance date of this rule to early October.
Judicial Rulings
A number of cases that could significantly impact colleges are on the dockets of not only a conservative-leaning Supreme Court but also various appellate and state courts, including the following:
- Race-based admissions. The Supreme Court ruled that the use of race in admissions decisions at the University of North Carolina (UNC) and Harvard College was unconstitutional, violating the Equal Protection Clause of the Constitution’s Fourteenth Amendment. In the 6–3 ruling, the Court overturned more than four decades of legal precedent in how race can be used in higher education admissions practices. While most colleges do not use race as a factor in their admissions decisions, a high court repudiation of affirmative action could have wide ripple effects, impacting any educational institution that relies on federal student aid.
- The end of Chevron deference. In June 2024, the Supreme Court ended “Chevron deference,” meaning courts can no longer defer to agencies’ interpretations of ambiguous laws. The 6–3 ruling creates uncertainty for colleges and universities, as many regulations may be reinterpreted differently across regions until resolved by appeals courts. Governing boards should monitor these changes closely and prepare to adapt as needed.
- Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). The legal challenge to DACA, which protects undocumented young people from deportation, is still at the appellate level, with no new students accorded that status and no likelihood that the divided 118th Congress will strike a comprehensive deal on immigration reform and border protection. Thus, the odds are that, in the coming months, the Supreme Court will ultimately determine DACA’s future.
- “Divisive Topics.” State legislatures and the courts are also waging disputes on bills, statutes, and executive orders that restrict what may be taught in college classrooms about race, the legacy of slavery, and other hot-button issues—notably state efforts to outlaw or curtail legal abortion following the Supreme Court decision to overturn a constitutional right to terminate pregnancies. With long legal battles likely to ensue in state and federal courts, none of these issues will be settled soon.
Political Influence
Real or perceived challenges to independent board governance, institutional autonomy, and academic freedom are likely to intensify as state lawmakers debate funding for diversity programs and what public schools and colleges can teach about race and gender. Dozens of state bills have been introduced, and some enacted, to counter what some lawmakers view as ideological “indoctrination” of students by faculty members and to protect the free speech rights of those who assert infringement on their rights. Expect higher education to remain a source of contention in the run-up to the 2024 elections, especially if student unrest related to the Israel-Hamas War persists into the fall and beyond. Concerns about student safety—particularly for Jewish students experiencing antisemitism—have energized Congress, especially House Republicans, to conduct hearings and undertake investigations of universities. The Department of Education is also conducting Title VI investigations over complaints of antisemitism and anti-Muslim discrimination.
Federal and State Funding
There was some good news on the financial front for college and university presidents and their governing boards at the outset of 2023. While it took years for state spending on higher education to rebound after the Great Recession of 2008, the near-term outlook for state budgets is positive. A survey by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association found “cautious optimism” among public higher education leaders.
The outlook for federal funding, however, is cloudy. The federal omnibus spending bill for fiscal 2023, enacted while both houses of Congress were still in the hands of Democrats, raised funding across the board for programs that benefit higher education, including Pell Grants and scientific research. House GOP lawmakers led the charge to restrict spending in fiscal 2024 as part of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA), which also lifted the federal debt ceiling. House Republicans spent much of calendar year 2023 advancing appropriations bills that lowered funding for FY 2024, and Congress had to pass multiple continuing resolutions to keep the government operating. Congress passed final FY 2024 appropriations in March at levels that were agreed to as part of the FRA. Since then, Congress has begun work on FY 2025 funding, with the House GOP passing an education appropriations bill that is more than $20 billion below the comparable FY 2024 funding, cutting the Federal Work-Study (FWS) program and the Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant (SEOG) program and blocking the Biden administration’s Title IX rules. In contrast, the Senate Appropriations Committee put forth education funding legislation for FY 2025 that boosted the maximum Pell Grant by $100 for the 2025–2026 award year and maintained funding for FWS and SEOG. Overall, the Senate’s suite of appropriations bills have $35 billion in additional spending. We expect a continuing resolution will be passed in late September, before the outcome of the November elections dictate how and when Congress resolves FY 2025 spending.
College Athletics
College sports will also most likely continue to be the subject of legislative activity and legal decisions. As a result of a 2021 decision by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) to allow students to be paid for marketing their name, image, and likeness (NIL), some student athletes are now being compensated. Numerous states also have enacted variants of California’s 2019 Fair Pay to Play Act. Congress appears unlikely to jump into the regulatory debate anytime soon and enact legislation to supersede state statutes. Two major antitrust cases against the NCAA have led the association to suspend its NIL-related infraction investigations.
Meanwhile, the National Labor Relations Board office in Los Angeles in December 2022 ruled that college athletes can be classified as employees with the right to unionize. In addition, on yet another athletics-related front, presidents and boards will be forced to grapple with the rapid-fire spread of legalized sports gambling on both collegiate and professional games.
And the jump by football teams to conferences far from home demonstrates how intent universities are on maximizing television ratings and revenues, despite subjecting players to more transcontinental flights and time away from campus. Such moves could expose the vulnerabilities of big-time collegiate sports to further political or judicial scrutiny.
In addition, the growing prevalence of sports betting is raising serious concerns in the NCAA and among its member institutions.
Acknowledgments:
AGB thanks the following advisory group members who added value to the manuscript through their questions and comments, which proved invaluable in strengthening the final report.
- Chris Connell, writer, freelance
- Sarah Flanagan, vice president of government relations & policy development, National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities (NAICU)
- Tom Harnisch, vice president for government relations, State Higher Education Executive Officers Association (SHEEO)
- Vic Klatt, principal, Penn Hill Group
- Richard Novak, senior fellow and senior consultant, AGB
- Tim McDonough, vice chancellor for communications and marketing, University System of Maryland
- Barmak Nassirian, vice president for higher education policy, Veteran Education Success
- Matt Owens, president, Council of Governmental Relations (COGR)
- Sarah Spreitzer, assistant vice president and chief of staff of government relations, American Council on Education (ACE)
- Natalie T. Sinicrope, deputy CEO & executive director of legal resources, National Association of College and University Attorneys (NACUA)