Impacts of the Enrollment Cliff in 2025–2026

Over the next decade, the number of traditional college-age students—primarily high school graduates—who are expected to enroll in higher education institutions is projected to decline. This “enrollment cliff” is the culmination of long-term demographic trends that are now coming to a head. Nathan D. Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College, has been at the forefront of analyzing these trends. In his book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Grawe projects that the number of college-age students will decline approximately 15 percent between 2025 and 2029. (Grawe, 2018)

Now more than ever, higher education governing boards need to be aware of how these changing demographics and other factors might impact enrollments at their own colleges and universities. This decline is already being felt at some institutions, particularly those that are small, tuition dependent, and have limited endowments. The policy environment is also shifting in 2025–2026 on issues such as immigration, student aid, and loan repayments—all issues that are likely to have implications for student enrollment and retention at many institutions.

This blog post provides insights, resources, and key questions to help governing boards navigate these demographic challenges and focus on their missions of helping students succeed. AGB’s Top Public Policy Issues Facing Governing Boards in 2025–2026 provides updates on policies affecting enrollments. More information is also available in the publications What Board Members Need to Know About Enrollment Management and Understanding Enrollment Management: A Guide for College and University Board Members. Another valuable resource is Grawe’s The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes, which presents interviews with institutional leaders who are responding to this environment.

What Caused the Enrollment Cliff?

The roots of the enrollment cliff can be traced back to the Great Recession of 2008. During and after this period, birth rates in the United States declined significantly. Fewer children born in those years means fewer high school graduates now and over the next several years. This demographic shift is complicated by regional differences. In a 2016 article in Trusteeship magazine called “Reprogramming Our Financial GPS,” Mark Putnam noted that some regions, particularly the South and West, are experiencing more stable or even growing populations, as opposed to other regions such as the Midwest and Northeast. Regardless of the current numbers of traditional-aged college students, Putnam warned that all higher education leaders “would be wise to exercise caution.” (Putnam, 2016)

These demographic trends are not expected to reverse quickly. Some data even suggest that the number of traditional college-age students might contract again in the 2030s as a result of a decline in birth rates during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Other factors might also play roles, such as more U.S. students applying to study overseas and declines in the number of visas for international students enrolling at institutions in the United States.

Implications for Colleges and Universities

Governing boards and administrators must be knowledgeable about the demographic trends affecting their regions and adapt their recruitment, admissions, and student-support strategies accordingly. This includes understanding the needs of nontraditional students, such as adult learners and military-affiliated students, who are becoming an increasingly important part of the enrollment landscape. Institutions should consider how recent cuts to education-related benefits might affect these students and understand they must be prepared to support them through graduation.

Furthermore, declining numbers of traditional-age students pose an existential threat to certain institutions that are less selective or heavily reliant on tuition revenue. Trustees should understand the risks to their business models and engage in strategic conversations with their fellow board members, chief executive, administrators, and other stakeholders to face these demographic challenges proactively and objectively.

Strategic Responses

Boards and institutional leaders should stay informed and adjust their enrollment strategies as needed.

For example:

• Study Demographic Projections: Regularly review data on high school graduation trends, both regionally and nationally, and consider international student-migration patterns. Ask, “How has the percentage of in-state, out-of-state, and international students at our institution changed over the past 10 years, and what trends are projected for the next decade? What specific demographic trends in our region or primary recruitment areas are likely to impact our future enrollment, and how is the board kept informed about these trends?”
• Expand Recruitment Efforts: Expand outreach to nontraditional student populations, including adult learners, military-affiliated students, and other underrepresented groups. Ask, “How is our institution adapting its recruitment, admissions, and student-support strategies to respond to the anticipated decline in traditional college-age students?”
• Enhance Student Support: Develop programs that support student persistence and success, particularly for first-generation and low-income students. Ask, “What steps are we taking to ensure the success and retention of students from non-traditional backgrounds, including first-generation and low-income students, who might be more cost sensitive and require additional support?”
• Review Financial Models: Assess the institution’s reliance on tuition revenue and explore alternative revenue streams. Ask, “How are we evaluating and adjusting our financial models and tuition strategies to address potential declines in enrollment and increased competition for students?”

Conclusion

The enrollment cliff is not just a looming challenge—it is already reshaping the higher education landscape. Changes in public policy in 2025–2026 might further complicate enrollments for many institutions, but resources are available to help board members and other higher education leaders navigate the challenges. By monitoring the underlying demographic trends and responding proactively, governing boards can help position their institutions to thrive in a more competitive environment. Trustees and institutional leaders must work together to ensure their colleges and universities are prepared for this new era in higher education.

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